Republican candidates head for the hills when Trump comes to their state to campaign, but he did manage to get four players from the Baltimore Ravens to be photographed with him today. I wouldn’t be surprised if the whole team was invited. I don’t know what’s between the president’s ass and his britches but it looks like it could accommodate a place setting. Or maybe it’s the Speaker of the House.
The Cook Political Report has shifted a lot of its ratings since I mentioned, back on Sept. 19, that it seemed like maybe the vibe favored the Democrats more than the numbers. Back then, Cook thought there were 208 seats that at least leaned Republican and 206 that the Dems were more likely to win. That left only 21 “toss-ups” in a landscape defined by gerrymandering intended to hold competitive races to a minimum. Cook now gives 208 seats to the Dems, 205 to the Republicans, and characterizes the remaining 22 as “toss-ups.”
Just today, Cook moved three Senate races in the Dems’ direction: North Carolina from “Lean D” to “Likely D,” New Hampshire from “Toss Up” to “Lean D,” and Kansas [sic] from “Lean R” to “Toss Up.” The upshot is that there are still seven Toss Ups, but now, assuming nothing Cook considers an upset occurs, the Democrats need only four of the seven, not five, to win the majority.
I have thought for awhile that the race in Minnesota seems weirdly quiet despite close public polling results. For what it’s worth, Cook characterizes the race here as “Likely D.” The Republicans have boat loads of money that they aren’t sharing with their retired sideline reporter so I guess they see it as Cook does? It seems that, compared to other outfits like it, Cook places less emphasis on recent polling and more on a state’s “fundamentals,” including election results from the recent past. If so, that might be a reason to worry about Minnesota, but it would then also tend to suggest that the Dems might have an edge in Ohio, Texas, and Alaska, where their candidates have consistently had small leads in most public polls.
By the way, Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Trump might achieve what no Republican since Hoover has been able to pull off–drive Kansans into the arms of the Democrats. I think he should campaign there! Roger Marshall, the Republican incumbent, wouldn’t be able to attend–“the senator regrets he has a previous commitment”–but maybe there are some footballers or golfers or NASCAR guys who would stand behind Trump near a wheat field and nod their heads while he says stupid stuff. The Democrats could make an ad out of it soon as he left.
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