Eric the Blue

Sometimes, the colorless prose of a New York Times article endows utterly ludicrous events with the veneer of grave propriety routinely assigned to political news. And sometimes, as with “Trump-Backed Republican Loses to Little-Known Rival Who Had Suspended His Bid,” the content is so bizarre that the style sheet cannot obscure it. The linked article is no doubt behind a paywall, which provides me with an excuse to summarize it–mainly, I admit, for my own enjoyment.

According to the Cook Political Report, Michigan’s eighth congressional district, home to the mid-sized cities of Saginaw and Flint, is the median district in the country: of the 435 congressional districts, 217 are more Democratic and 217 are more Republican than Michigan’s eighth. It’s one of the few districts in the country that in 2024 voted for both Trump and a Democrat, Kristin McDonald Rivet, for Congress. Consequently, it’s a top target for Republicans as they struggle to find seats they might be able to flip in this year’s midterm election.

Three Republicans were running in the primary, but one, Tom Smith (his real name), a small business owner from Flint, dropped out of the race in July. When Smith dropped out, he endorsed one of the other candidates, Al Lemmo. Trump subsequently endorsed the third candidate, Amir Hassan, a Black navy veteran. The Speaker of the House also endorsed Hassan because, as everyone knows, he does whatever Trump says. Neither Hassan nor Lemmo mounted much of a campaign, but Lemmo did produce some ads showing scary looking Black people in Muslim garb. Hassan isn’t Muslim, but he’s Black, and his name is Amir Hassan, so . . . close enough, I guess.

The primary was Tuesday and Smith, to his surprise, won in a walk. If you’ve been following along, you’ll understand why he was surprised: he had dropped out of the race a few weeks ago. With almost all the precincts reporting, Smith had received a fraction over 50 per cent of the vote. Hassan had 33 percent and Lemmo had 16 percent. So the winner had more than three times as many votes as the candidate he had endorsed when he dropped out, and the candidate endorsed by Trump lost by 17 points to someone who left off trying about a month ago.

The result requires an explanation, and the Times article mentions only the one put forward by Lemmo: voters, theorized the producer of anti-Muslim ads aimed at a non-Muslim, may have gone for “the plain-Jane American name.” I think he means to say that, seeing on the ballot the name “Amir Hassan,” Republican voters thought Uh-uh, and then went for Smith over Lemmo because “Smith” is farther from “Hassan.” If you accept that explanation, and I think I do, it follows that bigotry trumped Trump’s endorsement, and that the ads seem to have sunk Hassan without elevating Lemmo. The winner, then, was the guy who stayed out of it by quitting the race.

There’s a little more absurd embroidery to the story–for example, Smith’s handwritten note, obtained by the Times, in which he reports to the FEC that his campaign has raised the sum of $1850. Beneath his signature he appended a postscript that reads: “I could not file this form electronically because I have had no success logging in and have not been able to get a response from the help desk.” Okay, Boomer, but maybe if you’re going to be in the House of Representatives you should hire someone who can prosecute simple tasks for you (and maybe a third person to help you raise money). In Smith’s defense, when he wrote the note he was poised to drop out of the race. But he’s now the Republican candidate. Cook Political Report rates the race “Leans Democrat.”